For nearly a year now, the assumption from the chattering classes has been that the 2026 midterm election will be decided on the issue of affordability, but on the ground, in the mid-American states that will decide control of the senate, it is local issues that dominate, not the vague, overarching question of prices.
Part of the problem with nationalizing the affordability issue is that it originated in New York City with the campaign of current socialist mayor Zohran Mamdani. But Gotham is a unique case that is always very expensive. The last time Manhattan was affordable was when the Dutch bought it from the Indians.
In the middle of the country, including Michigan, Ohio, Minnesota, and Texas, all of which this column has visited in the past month, the economy is a major issue, as polls indicate, but it is not the same existential crisis that it was for voters we spoke with in 2022 or 2024.
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I met Reggie at a restaurant in Springfield, Ohio. He's recently married, reading self-help books, and in construction, he told Fox News Digital, "There's work, wages are good, that's not an issue, prices are prices, and gas has gone down with the tax holiday."
Reggie was referring to Ohio's decision to temporarily suspend gas tax, resulting in a price under four dollars in the Buckeye State.
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In fact, in no state this column visited did it seem as if cost of living was the prime driver of the electorate. So what is it? Let's take it state by state.
The cleanest and clearest way to know what issue is driving any community of voters is when they bring something up before you do, and in Minnesota, almost everyone I spoke with brought up fraud with no coaxing.
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Over the past year, the scope and scale of fraud in Minnesota's Somali community has come to shocking light and it is something that Democratic Lt. Gov. and Senate candidate Peggy Flanagan cannot escape, and that her GOP challenger, Michelle Tafoya is rightfully milking like a top-prize heifer at the Minnesota state fair.
This is a race that almost nobody expected to be competitive just a few months ago, but that is because pundits were reading the national mood, not the mood in Minnesota, which can only be found on the ground, and which is very angry.
Dayton, Ohio is full of absolutely lovely people, many of whom I spoke with, and I wish I could say kinder things about it, but it is an all but a dead city. Stunningly beautiful buildings sit abandoned, like coarse reminders of better days.
What Daytonites, as well as Ohians in general, want and need is growth. It's not that they can't afford their lives, it's that their communities do not thrive, do not grow, and they want to know if a once great state can be great again.
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In the race between Republican incumbent Sen. John Husted and Democrat Sherrod Brown, the winner will be the one who can convince Ohio voters that they have a plan to bring cities like Dayton back.
Compared to Dayton, Ohio, Grand Rapids, Michigan seems like Oz. As my Uber driver told me on the drive in, "Everyone I take back to the airport raves about the city. You will, too." And here we are.
Like Detroit, which this column also recently visited, Grand Rapids is a buzzing town, neat-necktied producers of wealth roam the streets discussing deals and going to lunch. You also see kids in a downtown that screams not just wealth, but authenticity.
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In the race between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed for senate, the primary issue is who can sustain the growth that Michigan has experienced, and who gets the credit: Democrat Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, or President Donald Trump.
Texas is another state where the most pressing issue is not economic, but rather, in this case, cultural. Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton has universally been tagged as the worst candidate of 2026, and yet not only is he a successful attorney general, he is also undeniably Texan, for all his big faults.
In James Talarico, Democrats have a once vegan, Unitarian-style Christian, who has admitted his biggest concern in life is making sure trans kids can get access to controversial surgical procedures. Now that Talerico is back from his two week bout of the flu, the cultural questions will be coming hot and heavy, and he has no good answer for them.
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When it comes to the economy, Americans are not in fear, but they do have questions and doubts. When I was talking with Reggie in Springfield, Greg came in. He sells autonomous lawn mowers to golf courses and commercial parks.
Eventually Reggie, who again, is in construction, asked a bit nervously, "How good are the autonomous forklifts getting?"
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Greg confirmed that the forklifts were getting very good, but added something interesting. "A landscaping company doesn't make money off the guy on a mower," he said, adding, "They make money from the guy trimming and edging. Now that's two guys and you can do an extra job every day."
I'm not sure Reggie was fully convinced or relieved. I'm not sure if I was for that matter, but this is the level of economic anxiety that exists in Middle America, not dread over whether food can be put on the table.
These four key senate races will be won by the candidates who best understand the local issues in their states, not the ones who wow on national TV over zeitgeist issues, and right now, in all four, it is the Republicans who have the upper hand on those issues.
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